The fog of war obscures the best laid plans
The more the US and Israel bomb Iran the more opposition this will create among the people of Iran. The Israeli destruction of petroleum storage facilities and water desalinization plants in Iran will also contribute to internal opposition.
As analyst Jeffrey Prather says, this is not a righteous war. We are the aggressors. The bombing of an Iranian girls’ school, in which at least 150 Iranian girls between the age of 7 and 10 were killed, is an abomination whether these children were deliberately targeted, or were “collateral damage.”
When a war to destroy military targets morphs into a war that destroys civilian targets, it is no longer a war. It is terrorism.
How is the Law of Unintended Consequences in play?
1) The U.S. Navy has informed the shipping industry that it cannot protect ships in the Strait of Hormuz because of the threat of Iranian drone strikes.
2) News reports have stated that the US has been redeploying munitions and air defense systems from South Korea to support operations in Iran. This includes transfers of guided bomb kits and components of THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) and Patriot missile systems.
3) Questions have arisen as to how many U.S. service members have actually died in the war.
4) Questions have been asked whether it was a U.S. bomb or an Israeli bomb that killed the Iranian girls. Was there even a strike on the school or is it just Iranian propaganda? Even asking the question serves the purpose of those who question the validity of the war.
5) Headlines today: (March 11): Iran Warns of Potential $200 per Barrel Oil Prices as It Attacks Merchant Ships
Strait of Hormuz Crisis Disrupts Fertilizer Trade, Sparking Food Price Fears, Shipping disruptions and plant shutdowns hit fertilizer supply as analysts warn industry is ‘in paralysis’ and say ‘full implications are not yet known.’
The War in Iran boils down to this: A war of Zionist religious fanatics in Israel and WASP religious fanatics in the US against Islamic religious fanatics in Iran. In other words, it is a war of psychopaths in three countries against each other. It would be laughable if it weren’t so tragic, but this is what psychopaths do.
Iran is not Iraq or Syria or Libya or Venezuela. The Persian people have a proud civilization that is at least 2,000 years old. Iran has a population of over 90 million and the north and midsection of the country is highly mountainous. Remember Afghanistan? The idea that airstrikes will defeat a formidable power like Iran without troops on the ground is delusional.
There are two competing Narratives in this war: 1) The US has invincible technology and we can start wars anywhere we want and no one can do anything about it. 2) The US is a paper tiger and Iran is actually winning the war. Both Narratives are exaggerations, but there is little public certainty about what is actually happening in this war..
One thing is certain: The longer it continues, the greater is the probability that the US loses because we cannot afford to put our troops on the ground. And even if we do we couldn’t hold that territory. Moreover, Russia and China will have something to say about that!
My hope is that Trump will save face and get the hell out of Iran as quickly as possible. Trump has done good work unifying the Arab world. Let’s not waste that work. It is now time to face the Israel question, and put a damper on Netanyahu and his crazy Greater Israel project. Otherwise the Law of Unintended Consequences will further assert itself and God only knows what will happen after that.
